Sudan
Losing the plot
An attempted coup suggests a regime at war with itself
Dec 1st 2012 | KHARTOUM | from the print edition
THE most surprising thing about a foiled coup in the Sudanese capital on November 22nd was how little it surprised anyone. Rumours of plots have circulated in the city since the secession of South Sudan last year. Within hours of tanks briefly rattling on to a street not far from the palace of Omar al-Bashir, the president, at least 13 of the usual suspects from the army and security services were in detention. They include the former head of intelligence, Salah Gosh, who was the minder of Osama bin Laden when he lived in Sudan in the 1990s and later co-operated with the CIA.
A struggle for power is under way. Mr Bashir has ruled for 23 years by holding together a complex coalition of nationalists, generals, Islamists and money men. They have done well out of him. Gaudy new towers dot the capital, including seven-storey military buildings in the shape of an aeroplane and a ship.
But southern secession, as well as presidential missteps, have undermined Mr Bashir. The loss of a quarter of Sudan’s territory upset nationalists. The generals have related complaints. Peace with the south after decades of war is threatening their budgets. By some estimates they consume 70% of state revenues. Worse, most oilfields, the main source of funds, are in the south. The government there expects eventually to pay fees to use northern pipelines, but it cut off the oil flow earlier this year when negotiations over the two countries’ future links stalled.
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Foreign-currency earnings have declined by 95%, triggering an economic crisis. Fed by newly printed money, inflation runs at 45%. The price of fool, Sudan’s traditional bean breakfast, has risen from $0.33 to $1.16. The cost of a sheep slaughtered for the feast at the end of Ramadan has more than doubled. Many educated professionals are leaving the country. A dozen medical specialists resigned from Khartoum University in mid-November to go abroad.
This economic malaise hurts the patronage network at the heart of the regime. Mr Bashir has long funnelled money to almost anyone with a stake in the system. So far he is still able to pay salaries and allowances. But a nine-day delay in the distribution of fuel coupons earlier this year set off a panic. More than 150,000 people have been persuaded to take up artisanal gold mining in the northern desert.
The only constituency not primarily interested in money, the Islamists, is also upset with Mr Bashir. Following the secession of the Christian and animist south, they wanted Sudan to become an Islamic state. Last year the president signalled support for fully enforcing sharia laws already on the books but he has since backtracked. The majority of northern Sudanese have no wish to emulate Saudi Arabia.
Hoping to buy himself time, the president indicated last year that he will retire by 2015. But health problems (doctors removed a possibly cancerous lump from the 68-year-old’s throat last month) have accelerated the jockeying among potential successors. Since opposition parties are weak, change seems more likely to come from the army. It alone can make a deal with the south work and turn the oil tap back on. No matter whether Mr Bashir retires, dies or is pushed aside, his successor will probably wear a uniform.
from the print edition | Middle East and Africa
