Miscalculated, SPLM rebels shelled Kadogli, South Kordofan last week as the Sudanese government was planning to negotiate with them. The attack was launched as President Al Bashir was visiting Juba to resolve pending issues with his South Sudanese counterpart.
The shelling, the fireworks like, in which Katyusha mortar were used is more political. It tended to draw the attention and express dissatisfaction over the normalization of ties between Sudan and South Sudan.
Another assumption is that SPLM-N is seeking to shell as far as its mortars could reach before sitting for negotiation with the government. The tactics was inherited from the late Dr John Garang who used to attack towns before the round of talks. We have to put into account the big difference between Dr Garang and SLM-N leaders.
SPLM-N rebels do not constitute a challenge to Sudanese government. They are passing through miserable situations. Sudan is only angry at Juba's support in terms of military logistic supply and men and foreign support.
In Blue Nile, the Sudanese army has spotted white mercenaries fighting with SPLM-N rebels. The necessaries are dispatched by US and Israeli security organizations to resolve the battle quickly.
Unfortunately, the situations have changed following the signing of the joint cooperation agreement and security arrangements which resulted in the formation of a buffer zone of 200 Km monitored by local and foreign experts.
Accordingly, the South Sudan oil has started to flow via Sudan for export and that President Kiir is expected in Khartoum shortly to resume Juba talks.
In 2007, Eritrea sponsored the talks between the Sudanese government and east Sudan front which led to a deal ending the tension along the Sudan-Eritrean border.
Similarly, President Kiir has offered to mediate between Khartoum and SLM-N rebels, because he knows that the rebels without Juba are an O without a figure. Kiir's initiative tends to bring stability to joint borders, the vital demand of the masses.
SPLM-N will lose out South Sudan's support in same as Justice an Equality Movement which became aimless and disintegrated when lost Chad's support.
SPLM-N cannot blame Juba for betterment of ties with Khartoum or lay down arms overnight to accept the new development between the two neighbors.
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