October 8, 2013 (WASHINGTON) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday upgraded its projections for Sudan’s economic growth in 2013 compared to last April’s figures.
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) released today by the IMF also showed Sudan’s economy growing by 3.9% this year compared to a previous estimate of 1.2%.
But in 2014 the East African nation’s GDP is forecasted to slow down to 2.5%.
The inflation rate for 2013 will remain high at 32.1% before decreasing to 27.4% next year.
This year will be the first that Sudan achieves a positive GDP growth since the secession of the south in July 2011 which established a nation that took 75% of the oil reserves that existed prior to the partition.
Oil revenues constituted the majority of Sudan’s exports, national income and source of hard currency.
The IMF said in a separate statement last week that "economic conditions remained weak in the first half of 2013 despite some signs of improvement".
It noted that "non-oil real GDP growth is projected to slow further to 2.3 percent in 2013, and to remain below potential at about 3 percent over the medium term. Inflation would decelerate somewhat, but would remain in double-digit levels, reflecting the monetization of the budget deficit, as well as the continued depreciation of the Sudanese pound".
It also warned that despite an initial drop in budget deficit over the oil transit fees agreement with South Sudan, the deficit will widen again in subsequent years.
Fearing an economic collapse, as Sudanese officials termed it, Khartoum cut fuel subsidies late last month which almost doubled prices of gasoline and diesel thus triggering some of the worst protests Sudan has seen in years.
The Sudanese pound has lost more than half of its value pushing inflation rates to record levels given that the East African nation imports most of its food.
Sudan Forex reserves held by the central bank cover only two months of imports, according to IMF figures. Sudanese officials in the past have said they have enough holdings for five months of imports.
The IMF urged Sudan to strengthen current economic policies with urgent focus on addressing fiscal imbalances and tax reforms.
"While most of the adjustment effort will need to focus on reducing expenditures by reducing transfers to states, and gradually phasing out subsidies, tax revenues will also need to be increased, in part through streamlining tax exemptions and rationalizing tax incentives. Monetary policy should be geared towards combating inflation; a key requirement in this regard is formulation a clear mandate for the Central Bank to facilitate its operational independence. Immediate unification of the exchange rates and greater exchange rate flexibility is crucial to facilitate the required external adjustment and to safeguard and rebuild official exchange reserves," the statement said.
The IMF also urged Sudan to work with South Sudan on the issue of debt that existed under the pre-secession Sudan but currently inherited by Khartoum.
"In light of Sudan’s large stock of overdue external debt obligations, the government should work closely with South Sudan, as part of the recently signed Comprehensive Agreement, on reaching out to creditors to elicit their support for comprehensive debt relief, given the approaching deadline of the “zero option” for debt apportionment".
North and South Sudan agreed to work jointly on seeking debt relief from international creditors. If these efforts are unsuccessful the ex-foes will sit down again to decide on how to split the debt.
According to IMF projections, Sudan’s external debt as percentage of GDP increased to 87.6% from 82.2% in 2012.
(ST)
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